Navigating Uncertainty: The PC Market's Evolving Terrain
A Tumultuous Year for the PC Market
The year 2025 proved to be an eventful period for the personal computing sector. It commenced with the introduction of new graphics card generations from major manufacturers and concerns surrounding tariffs. The year concluded with the onset of a significant memory component scarcity, further complicated by recurring tariff-related anxieties. Despite these challenges, preliminary assessments indicate a robust finish to PC sales for 2025, though forecasts for 2026 suggest a potentially more difficult environment.
Insights from Industry Analysts: Growth Amidst Volatility
According to a report from Internal Data Corporation (IDC), the fourth quarter of 2025 witnessed a 9.6% year-over-year growth in PC shipments. However, IDC anticipates substantial shifts in the PC market over the next twelve months due to the rapid evolution of the memory situation. Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC's research vice president, cautioned that, beyond the price increases already announced by some manufacturers, a reduction in average PC memory specifications might occur to conserve existing memory stock. He emphasized that the coming year is expected to be highly unstable.
Market Share Dynamics and the Rise of Major Players
The conclusion of 2025 saw an increase in market share for leading brands such as Lenovo, HP, and Dell, while Apple and Asus experienced minor declines compared to the previous year. IDC points out that 2026 could present an opportune moment for larger corporations to consolidate their position, potentially at the expense of smaller, more specialized competitors.
The Strategic Advantage of Scale in a Constrained Market
Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, noted that major consumer electronics companies are well-equipped to leverage their extensive scale and memory allocations to gain market share from smaller regional vendors. He also warned that the severity of the shortage could lead to the demise of smaller brands, prompting consumers, particularly DIY enthusiasts, to postpone purchases or reallocate their spending to other devices or experiences.
Anticipated Price Hikes and Vendor Prioritization
IDC predicts that the average selling prices for PC systems will likely increase in 2026. Consequently, vendors are expected to prioritize mid-range and premium systems to offset the elevated costs of individual components, with a particular focus on memory.
Confirming Trends: Omdia's Parallel Findings
Omdia's year-end report corroborates these findings, indicating a 9.2% year-over-year growth in global PC shipments for 2025. Omdia also suggests that the current memory crisis offers larger industry players an advantage in displacing smaller companies. Ben Yeh, principal analyst at Omdia, elaborates: "In 2026, with device replacement demand not yet fully abated, supply-side pressures will be more pronounced and supply will not fully meet demand. Actual shipment performance will hinge on vendors' memory and storage procurement and negotiating leverage; beyond scale, their track records and credibility with suppliers will be a decisive factor in determining their success in navigating this period of complexity."
A Challenging Outlook for the Broader PC Ecosystem
If memory shortages persist throughout the year, and only large enterprises with substantial resources and favorable supply agreements manage to endure, the overall prospects for the PC market may appear less optimistic.